Richard Zeckhauser’s essay Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable (U&U) explores how exceptional returns can be achieved in situations where both outcomes and their probabilities are unknowable—by applying strategic reasoning, recognizing asymmetries, and leveraging complementary skills. Most investors prefer scenarios where probabilities can be assigned, models can be built, and ranges can be bounded. Zeckhauser suggests that the greatest opportunities often exist in situations where forecasts are difficult, where payoff distributions are wide, and where probabilities cannot be cleanly estimated.

In these U&U situations, the key feature is asymmetry. There are opportunities where the downside can be limited — through structure, liquidation values, or contractual protections — while the upside remains open-ended and unknowable in its full range. This dynamic both discourages participation from investors who require certainty and creates opportunity for those willing to tolerate ambiguity. The result is that the competitive field is often thinner, and the potential rewards for those who do engage may be outsized.

The proposed combination of Willow Lane Acquisition Corp. (WLAC) and Boostrun can be seen through this lens. At one end of the spectrum, the cash value per trust share of WLAC (~$10.30) provides a definable risk floor, since those funds are redeemable if the transaction does not close. At the other end, the range of potential upside is not knowable in advance. It could involve a meaningful re-rating toward the multiples of peers like CoreWeave, a longer trajectory of growth if unit economics scale as described, or potentially larger strategic relevance in a consolidating market. What can be observed is the asymmetry: the downside is anchored by cash, while the upside spans a wide and difficult-to-quantify distribution.

The Situation

Boostrun is positioning itself as a purpose-built AI infrastructure provider designed for enterprise and regulated industries. Rather than only competing on commodity GPU rentals, the company emphasizes compliance, predictability, and integration into the workflows of institutions with high requirements for security and reliability.

The platform offers bare-metal GPU access via both web UI and API, which allows customers to avoid the multi-tenant performance variability often associated with hyperscale clouds. The company has achieved certifications such as SOC 2 (Type 1 & 2), HIPAA, and ISO27001, giving it credentials that are table stakes for healthcare, finance, and government customers. These certifications extend beyond basic data center standards to operator-level compliance, creating an important distinction in procurement conversations, and a moat of reasonable width.

Boostrun has also built a partner ecosystem that connects it to critical resources and channels. NVIDIA and Lenovo support GPU supply, TierPoint provides data-center capacity across multiple U.S. locations, Carahsoft opens distribution into the public sector, while DDN and Lumen address storage throughput and networking, respectively.  This assemble network suggests that Boost Run has embedded itself into the supply and channel structures needed for scaling in enterprise markets.

Founder Andrew Karos, with prior experience in high-performance infrastructure through Blue Fire Capital and Galaxy Digital, has self-funded the company and overseen profitable operations since inception.   

The Deal

The business combination with WLAC provides the structure for Boost Run to go public. The deal values the company at a post-money valuation of ~$614M, with ~$112M of gross cash expected to the balance sheet in a no-redemption scenario. The company’s midpoint projection of $180M in 2026E revenue implies a forward multiple of ~3.0–3.4× EV/Revenue, depending on closing assumptions.

The capital is earmarked for hardware deployments through 2026, with management indicating an expected ~$400M investment translating into ~16MW of capacity added across TierPoint locations. The deployment will be staged over time to match demand rather than executed as a single large build, a design that may reduce execution risk.

Incentives are aligned through the issuance of 11.25M earn-out shares, which vest if the stock trades above $12.50, $15.00, and $17.50. This structure links additional insider equity directly to market performance above defined thresholds.

Speaking of shares, the cap table is tight, with no debt at launch, and the majority of shares held by insiders.  

Business Mechanics

The company highlights a business model that emphasizes capital efficiency and rapid payback. According to management, ~70% of CapEx converts to revenue within 12 months, reflecting strong utilization rates on new deployments. The GPU payback period is projected at ~30 months, a sharp contrast to the 60–84 months common in traditional infrastructure projects.

The model also carries an ambitious profitability target, with adjusted EBITDA margins forecast at ~80% in 2026. While such margins are unusual for infrastructure businesses, they reflect Boost Run’s positioning closer to a software-style margin profile, driven by high utilization and automation in orchestration. The rollout plan is incremental, adding capacity in phases and scaling with demand. This approach stands in contrast to the more speculative large upfront builds seen in some peers.

CoreWeave as a Reference Point

CoreWeave, currently valued at ~$70B EV with ~$12.3B of 2026E revenue, trades at approximately 6× forward 2026 revenue. Boost Run, by comparison, is entering public markets at ~2.8–3.4× forward 2026 revenue.

This valuation gap is significant. CoreWeave’s trajectory shows how a specialized AI cloud provider can scale revenues by multiples within a short period, having expanded from ~$2B to a forecast ~$18B over just a few years. While Boost Run is at an earlier stage, the peer comparison illustrates the multiple range that markets are willing to assign to operators in this space, and the growth rate that is possible.  

An initial stage of valuation recognition for Boost Run could involve adjustment toward peer multiples. Beyond that, the path depends on execution: whether the company can deliver on its projected growth, sustain high utilization and margins, and entrench itself within regulated and public-sector markets.

Catalysts

Several developments may inform how the market assesses the combined company:

• Publication of the SEC S-4/proxy, followed by a shareholder vote and closing targeted for Q4 2025.
• Commissioning of new MW deployments at TierPoint facilities through 2026, testing the scalability of the rollout model.
• Early traction in regulated and public-sector markets through the Carahsoft channel.
• Audited financials and any revised projections, which may clarify the company’s economics.

Each of these will provide additional data points against which to measure execution.

Risks

Like many early-stage infrastructure growth companies, WLAC/Boost Run carries execution and structural risks. Redemption levels will determine the amount of cash actually delivered to the balance sheet, influencing the pace of expansion. Financials are currently unaudited and may be revised prior to closing. Execution depends on timely GPU supply, power procurement, and commissioning of new facilities. Finally, post-close liquidity may be limited initially, contributing to volatility.

Common Shares vs. Warrants

The securities structure offers two main instruments. Common Stock (WLAC → BRUN) provides direct ownership in the combined company. Warrants (WLACW → BRUN WS) carry an $11.50 strike, have a five-year term, and include a cashless exercise feature. Approximately 11.5M warrants are outstanding. Warrants offer higher gearing to upside but are also more sensitive to volatility, redemption mechanics, and timing of execution.

Looking at WLAC / WLACW through the DTM5 Lens

My framework for making an investment is to identify opportunities using my principals of Merit, Asymmetry, Timing and Price.   From this perspective, here is what I am seeing:

• Merit: Boost Run presents a compliance-first infrastructure model, founder-led execution, and validation through established partners.  It passes my merit screens based on management & governance credibility, balance sheet / cap table structure, strategy and sector opportunity legitimacy.  
• Asymmetry: Downside is supported by the redemption value of the trust shares, while upside / growth is distributed across revenue and margin scenarios that cannot be precisely known in advance, but skew from modest to dramatically positive with long term strategic potential upside.  My kinda thing!
• Timing: AI infrastructure demand remains high, with sector-wide capex projected at ~$900B+ by 2028.  The sector has been blazingly hot, and things often cool.   But on the basis that the sector is in the earlier part of a supercycle, I am banking on a long runway albeit with a high degree of volatility (which of course, is great for position building)
• Price: Entry valuation of ~3.0–3.4× forward 2026 revenue compares very favourably to ~6× for CoreWeave.  In light of the Merit, Asymmetry and Timing, the share / warrant prices currently look very attractive relative to the risk and upside.

Through the Zeckhauser U&U lens, WLAC/Boost Run reflects a situation where the downside can be clearly defined while the upside is positive, open-ended and somewhat unknowable in scope.  The trust share redemption value provides a structural  floor, while outcomes above that level range from modest multiple alignment with peers to aggressive supercycle driven growth and potential strategic relevance to acquisitors.

In Summary

I am building a position in WLAC and WLACW ahead of the proposed deal close. My current view is less about a short-term trade and more about a mid-to-long-term investment in a sector that is scaling rapidly. What stands out is the disconnect between downside and upside: The potential loss appears limited — roughly 20% in a redemption scenario — while the upside spans a broad distribution, from ~80% to 250% over a 1–3 year horizon, with further upside optionality if strategic value continues to develop. This balance, combined with what I see as a moderate-to-high probability of successful scaling and execution, creates an asymmetry that is particularly attractive.

Disclosure  –  The Author owns and is acquiring WLAC shares and WLACW warrants at the date of this blogpost. The Author is not compensated in any way by WLAC or Boostrun and has no commercial or financial relationship with the company except as an investor. Readers are required to do there own due diligence and not rely on any aspect of this blogpost for advice.