In a recent advisory board meeting, I took an assessment called the ‘six types of working genius,’ developed by Patrick M. Lencioni. This tool helps individuals and teams better understand their strengths and frustrations. For each person, it categorizes the six types of ‘genius’  into 3 areas – What they love doing  in (working genius),  what they are competent at (working competencies), and what frustrates them (working frustrations).  

My assessment revealed that my working genius lies in two areas:

The Genius of Discernment: This is the gift of intuitively and instinctively evaluating ideas and situations

The Genius of Wonder: This is the gift of pondering the possibility of greater potential and opportunity in a given situation

I can be a pretty skeptical guy about a lot of things, but I was very impressed with my little report. Those two areas are what give me joy and satisfaction as a leader in business and especially as an investor – Evaluating ideas and pondering potential and opportunity. Those are my happy places!   

As an investor who is always pondering the ‘possibility of greater potential’ and wanting to ‘intuitively and instinctually evaluate ideas’, I am often wondering ‘what’s next’? I like to have a group of investment / trade ideas ‘on the bench’ that I can bring forward if and when the time is right.

So, what’s next?

Currently, I’m patiently waiting for the ‘value realization’ of my 4 key holdings, which is expected to happen within the next 6-24 months. Once they mature  I plan to re-allocate into new positions – of course always aiming for at least a 5x return on my cost base. I’m always hunting for unicorns.   

In addition to my core venture stage investment strategy, I’m always on the lookout for trades based on strong cyclical or mid-length trends. For instance, I had success with DeFi / Crypto and precious metals trades when I started my strategy. These were initially meant to be long-term holds, but market conditions changed and it became clear the duration and risk level of the investments had grown larger.  So I staged a tactical and profitable retreat.  

For more details on these events, you can check out my blog post here.

Lately, I’ve been thinking about a trade framework in this ‘cyclical trend’ type approach.   It’s becoming evident to me there might be an opportunity in the stabilization of investors expectations around interest rate trends. If rate stability  aligns with the end of a recession, and /  or a reduction in the conflict between the USSR and Ukraine, or a stabilization of oil prices due to the resolution of the israeli / Hamas war  (say, in Q3 of next year), it could significantly impact risk assets like Tech and Crypto, as well as industrial commodities like Copper and base metals.

Basically, what I’m pondering is the possibility of the confluence of two or more major events which together would change the risk profile of the market from fear / caution to opportunity / growth.    

I’m exploring ways to enter this trade in the next 2-4 months, to get 3-6 months ahead of the crowd.  I have a few companies in mind that could serve as suitable vehicles for this trade.   I’ll probably use small or micro cap stocks in my target sectors that I think have some leverage to do exceptionally well if things  go right.  

The key to a 12/18 month cyclical trade is staying alert and not being too attached to a position, because in this case the trend of the asset class is as important (if not more) than the thesis on the individual company.   

This approach also involves cutting losses early and moving on when sector / asset class warning signs appear.   

In summary, I’m an investor who is happiest evaluating opportunities and wondering about possibilities.   I’m always wondering about ‘what’s next’.   I’ll be continuing with my core, concentrated venture strategy, with a side of cyclical trend trading if the opportunity presents itself.   

For more information on the ‘six types of working genius’ assessment, you can visit https://www.workinggenius.com/.

GLTA!