I’ve been deep into studying the economic environment. Inflation, war, Increasing interest rates, fiscal tightening, commodity madness, energy price shocks and real estate bubbles…..what a time to be an investor! Podcasts, blogs, interviews, conferences…..I’m deep down the rabbit hole.

It is pretty clear that we are at a major economic and market inflection point (Duh!). The intersection of several decades of declining rates and accommodative monetary policy has finally triggered aggressive global inflation. This, along with war in Europe has created an environment that few, if any of us have ever seen before. The playing field is changing fast – which makes it a particularly challenging time for investing. I get the sense that risk and opportunity are both higher than ever. The stakes have increased.

Fortunately, my approach to ‘venture’ investing is predicated more on individual company opportunity than macro environmental factors. It really isn’t a ‘market’ strategy, and I don’t measure it as such. It is more of a business strategy – Which is a great mental space to be in. As a business person, it is easier to think longer term, and understand that success never unfolds in a straight line. Navy Seal turned motivational expert David Goggins describes success this way – ‘Success isn’t a straight line. It’s a maze….and when you think you’ve figured that maze out, you hit a wall, and you gotta turn the f**k around and start again!’.

A recurring theme that I’ve been thinking about this year is false beliefs. How our behaviors – our actions – are steered by beliefs that oftentimes are false, illogical or uninformed. We base so much of our lives on things that we see , hear, and learn from others. On ideas that are mentioned or taught casually to us by others. We rarely examine the validity of the ideas or the competence or integrity of the messenger. And then we build up repetitive behavior patterns based on these beliefs. Basically, I’m describing how advertising and marketing work at the psychological level. Or how biases are created.

This self limiting belief system basically controls our life. More specifically, it controls how we invest. It completely limits us. Now, the flipside is that beliefs give us a framework to exist within, and also protect us. But the wrong, or inaccurate beliefs cost us time, money and experience.

My beliefs – what I’ve heard and learned along the way, whether accurate or not, have put blinders on me that I am attempting to take off, or re-shape. It is a struggle, trying to see things in a different way. But that is how you learn and grow.

The big belief set, right now, that I think most are struggling with, is whether things are ‘different this time’ in this market correction. Well, sometimes it pays to listen to the rustle in the bushes. It could be a bear.

GLTA!