Determining if an investment has Merit

I’m a big believer in the 80/20 rule, aka the Pareto principle. In case you aren’t familiar with it, here is a primer from a blog post at Medium.com

https://medium.com/pm101/how-you-can-apply-the-80-20-rule-in-your-life-and-work-7d094a78e136

The 80/20 rule is also known as the Pareto principle or the law of the vital few, which basically means that in many events 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes. The Pareto principle name came from the Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto who discovered the principle after realizing that approximately 80% of the land in Italy was owned by 20% of the population, and he kept observing the same pattern in other different situations.

Vilfredo Federico Damaso Pareto was born in Italy in 1848 and became an important philosopher and economist. After his realization of the 80/20 pattern, Pareto started to think about uneven distributions and discovered that different industries also followed the same pattern when the generalization became a universal truth.

The Pareto principle or 80/20 rule is the universal truth about the imbalance of inputs and outputs. You don’t need to create mathematical formulas, do some complex math, or understand statistics to leverage the 80/20 framework and start using it in your daily work.

The main point is to find the small things that give you the biggest results.

The key principal of the DTM5 strategy is to determine if an investment has ‘Merit’. Now, I’m only one person. I borrow the resources of others (research, opinions). I have some substantial experience in business and investing. I utilize technology for both trading and research efficiently. But, at the end of the day I only have so much time and one brain to work with. So, I have to choose my battles carefully – ie. Do the 20% that will get me 80% of the results!

So this is a deeper dive into the DTM merit process. This is my 20%, my ‘vital few’. By using these I believe I get 80% of what I need to know to make a decision about an investment.

But first a caveat – Before I do the Merit dive I like to ask a couple questions about a company I’m looking at.

1. With a quick look, do I understand the company and business model?

2. Is the company in a sector that has strong potential or in a secular growth trend?

If the answers are ‘yes’, I can start to determine Merit.

Here are the areas I look into to determine Merit, with comments italicized

Balance Sheet Health
Debt level and structureLow / no debt
Liquidity / Working CapitalGood WC levels
Shareholders EquityVery strong price book ratio
Capital structure
Shares OSFewer the better. Tight and smart.
DebtSmart debt financing, not desperate
OwnershipMeaningful management holdings
Cash Management
Cash RunwayOperationally funded or smart financing capability
Cash FlowPositive or realistic path to positive
Expense StructureAligned with Cash flow reality
Management CompAligned with shareholders
Management
Experience and CredibilityIndustry relevant, valuable to company
Operators or Opportunistic?Been there done that vs seagulls smelling food
Operators or BankersTrue Entrepreneurs vs. Money chasing middlemen
News
Market communications?Professionalism vs Amateur
Credible vs promotionalMaterial News vs. Distracting Noise
PumpingShouldn’t be necessary, ever

So, what information sources do I use? MD&A statements, financial statements, insider transaction reports, news releases, management bios, company websites, published research reports (both institutional and amateur).

Now a company doesn’t have to be ‘perfect’ to consider an investment. Some items are more important than others. But, on the whole, I find this merit process gives me a good solid overview of the company and whether I should put it on the DTM5 bench.

And, even if a company is perfect in every regard, it doesn’t mean the DTM5 will make an investment. If it can’t be bought at the right time and price, there is no point in owning it. Remember – I’m hunting for bear here and I want to achieve a very high rate of return. Timing and price are critical components of that.

GLTA!



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